Sunday, June 14, 2015

India GDP growth graph of the day

India GDP growth graph of the day

India's revised GDP numbers have been variously called as puzzling and confusing. Now, Andy Mukherjee draws attention to describes it as a statistical illusion. He constructs a proxy indicator for growth by combining three parameters - corporate earnings (reflects private investment), auto sales (proxy for consumer demand), and software imports (captures productivity gains) - and compares it with the actual GDP growth rate. 


The divergence in the two trajectories, especially since Q4 2012, is striking. In fact, by this indicator, atleast one-third of the GDP growth appears a statistical illusion.

No comments:

Post a Comment