Dear Customer,
I write to you in response to the attention that the latest episode of the Greek Standoff bears.
In my opinion the facts of Greek insolvency, intentions, and desperation to save face is known all along. Whether within or outside of European Union, they have very little role to play in bolstering the economic prospects of EU; what with their less than 1% contribution, to EU’s GDP? Where they are playing a significant role is testing EU’s resolve in handling the situation, which is likely to repeat through Portugal, Italy and Spain soon.
What is at play here, according to me is:
1. The tired EU doesn’t want to be seen as succumbing to the blackmail of Greece on the other hand it doesn’t want Greece to go out too. It would mean a lot instability that is a strain on everyone’s mind, diverting attention from other pressing Growth oriented issues.
2. The equally desperate Greek Government doesn’t want to be seen as succumbing to the pressures of EU, after having promised a David Vs Goliath outcome to their electorate just a few months back. The present Syriza Government only recently captured the imagination of their electorate that a fresh start after a default is better off for everybody than complying with stringent discipline laid down by the EU. In the recent months the Syriza Govt would have realised the impracticality of pushing the EU without their people’s support. An out-of-turn referendum announced a couple of days back, is to put the onus back on people to decide on this big turning point.
My take:
1. Greeks will vote for staying in.
2. Syriza Government will save face and accept the significantly diluted disciplinary cuts already underway, on behalf of their people.
3. The Greeks will realise the extent of pain in some months under the ‘austerity’ that they have accepted.
4. Chaos returns.
Risk to my view: Many
What should investors do?
1. Realise that anything known by the markets rarely causes collapse. This situation which has been there for a decade doesn’t qualify for creating a collapse for 20 to 30 % in itself.
2. It’s what will follow in terms of other countries like Portugal, Spain , Italy and the like will demand as similar accommodations, which will demand the ultimate endgame. There is probably quite some time for that.
3. For now, Indian investors should focus on the results season and look for evidence that the economy has bottomed out and plunge headlong into Equities in line with their asset allocation.
4. Nothing else really can matter in the long-term. The world surely has never come to an end and there are companies which are incrementally profitable.
5. Go ahead and build back your equites and equity mutual funds by end of the ensuing results season.
--
I write to you in response to the attention that the latest episode of the Greek Standoff bears.
In my opinion the facts of Greek insolvency, intentions, and desperation to save face is known all along. Whether within or outside of European Union, they have very little role to play in bolstering the economic prospects of EU; what with their less than 1% contribution, to EU’s GDP? Where they are playing a significant role is testing EU’s resolve in handling the situation, which is likely to repeat through Portugal, Italy and Spain soon.
What is at play here, according to me is:
1. The tired EU doesn’t want to be seen as succumbing to the blackmail of Greece on the other hand it doesn’t want Greece to go out too. It would mean a lot instability that is a strain on everyone’s mind, diverting attention from other pressing Growth oriented issues.
2. The equally desperate Greek Government doesn’t want to be seen as succumbing to the pressures of EU, after having promised a David Vs Goliath outcome to their electorate just a few months back. The present Syriza Government only recently captured the imagination of their electorate that a fresh start after a default is better off for everybody than complying with stringent discipline laid down by the EU. In the recent months the Syriza Govt would have realised the impracticality of pushing the EU without their people’s support. An out-of-turn referendum announced a couple of days back, is to put the onus back on people to decide on this big turning point.
My take:
1. Greeks will vote for staying in.
2. Syriza Government will save face and accept the significantly diluted disciplinary cuts already underway, on behalf of their people.
3. The Greeks will realise the extent of pain in some months under the ‘austerity’ that they have accepted.
4. Chaos returns.
Risk to my view: Many
What should investors do?
1. Realise that anything known by the markets rarely causes collapse. This situation which has been there for a decade doesn’t qualify for creating a collapse for 20 to 30 % in itself.
2. It’s what will follow in terms of other countries like Portugal, Spain , Italy and the like will demand as similar accommodations, which will demand the ultimate endgame. There is probably quite some time for that.
3. For now, Indian investors should focus on the results season and look for evidence that the economy has bottomed out and plunge headlong into Equities in line with their asset allocation.
4. Nothing else really can matter in the long-term. The world surely has never come to an end and there are companies which are incrementally profitable.
5. Go ahead and build back your equites and equity mutual funds by end of the ensuing results season.
--
Regards,
Ritesh.Sheth CWM®
CHARTERED WEALTH MANAGER
Helping you invest better...
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Disclaimer:This emailer is addressed to and intended for the investors of Ritesh Sheth & Tejas Consultancy only and is not spam. it is been first publised by Citadelle. I ritesh sheth fully convinced with findings so like to share this information to all my client.You are advised to contact Ritesh Sheth & Tejas Consultancy to clarify any issue that you may have with regards to any information contained in this emailer.The views are personal. Ritesh Sheth & Family or Tejas Consultancy does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information in this emailer and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of such information. Ritesh Sheth & Family or Tejas Consultancy does not have any liability to any person on account of the use of information provided herein and the said information is provided on a best effort basis. In case of investments in any of our schemes, please read
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