The month of January 2021 witnessed considerable easing of momentum in equity markets as investors resorted to profit booking after an unprecedented rally in the latter months of 2020. The Nifty 50 index fell by 2.5% to 13,634. Meanwhile, the Nifty MidCap 100 and Nifty SmallCap 100 index rose marginally by 0.8% and 1.6% respectively.
FIIs scaled back their aggressive investment strategy into the Indian equity markets pouring in Rs. 14,512 crs, the lowest since October 2020. Meanwhile, MFs continued their selling spree removing Rs. 12,980 from the equity markets.
FIIs scaled back their aggressive investment strategy into the Indian equity markets pouring in Rs. 14,512 crs, the lowest since October 2020. Meanwhile, MFs continued their selling spree removing Rs. 12,980 from the equity markets.
The union budget announced on Feb 1st 2021, brought with it extreme euphoria as the finance minister chose to take The Path Less Trodden. The budget gave a clear indication of the government's focus on growth through capital expenditure without worrying about the fiscal deficit in addition to adopting cleaner accounting methods.This Budget is historic in a way that breaks the shackles of fiscal constraints. By increasing capital expenditure, the multiplier effect on the economy will be significantly more impactful against the previous route of revenue expenditure which results in limited gains.With significantly lower Covid-19 cases, a well-executed vaccine drive, high level of liquidity in the markets and a pro-growth budget, it is not difficult to be optimistic for 2021. Also providing support were earnings upgrades that continue at an unprecedented pace as activity continues to normalize. Along with the earnings upgrades, India also experienced upgrades to GDP estimates. As per RBI, the GDP for FY22 is set to grow at 10.5%, albeit on a lower base.On the global front, While the UK is struggling to stay afloat due to the rapid spread of the new variant of the virus, the US economy is rejoicing due to the Biden administration coming to power. China remains the fastest growing economy in the world and is projected to be the only country to post a positive growth this fiscal. There are clear signs of economic progression as oil prices are nearing long term average levels and a slight retracement in gold prices, indicating revival of risk appetite among investors.The focus for us has been to deploy the remaining corpus, and we are in the process of actively evaluating opportunities for the same. Current equity market valuations at 41.4x look exorbitant and discount even the highest level of growth expectations. The current Quarter earnings YoY growth for Nifty is at 16.16%(34 out of 50 companies’ results are published). Due to the lack of any margin of safety, we advise investors to remain cautious and take advantage of any correction from this point on for long term investments.On the Fixed Income front, a higher-than-expected fiscal deficit announced in the budget leading to a higher-than-expected borrowing program to the tune of 12 lac crores led to an uptick in the 10-year G-sec rate by 11 bps to 6.06%. Presently, we are of the opinion that the heightened borrowing by the government will not affect India’s credit rating or ability to service timely repayments of loans. Much depends on how the government engages with rating agencies and divests in a timely manner. With CPI inflation finally cooling to 4.59% after months of breaching its upper limit of 6%, the real returns to a foreign portfolio investor continues to look attractive.We believe that the yield curve is likely to remain steep this year. Due to the crash in yields for ultra-short term, we believe any investment for a period of 1-2 years should be made in Arbitrage funds due to the pickup of spreads in the category. Banking and PSU debt funds can be considered for a greater than 2-year investment period.
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