Tuesday, March 28, 2017

India's campaign finance reform journey

India's campaign finance reform journey

The recently passed amendments to the Finance Bill 2017 by the Lower House of the Indian Parliament includes a provision to remove the caps on undisclosed donations to political parties. Critics are right in questioning the wisdom of pushing through such an important decision as part of a Money Bill. And it is most likely that this would be litigated and stuck down by the Supreme Court. 

But their critique that this would weaken campaign finance reforms is arguable. In fact, I am inclined to argue that lifting the cap on corporate donations may be a prudent compromise, though the government may have ended up overreaching with its other elements. 

The conventional wisdom on campaign finance reforms advocate a simultaneous pursuit of transparency (limiting cash donations), competition (capping of donations), and deter cronyism (making their disclosure mandatory). 

While logically unexceptionable and intellectually laudable, I am inclined to believe that this is impractical given the political economy and the scale of transformation that it would entail. Given the prevailing nature and scale of campaign financing, the massive gap between the actual and permissible amounts, and the difficulty of cobbling political consensus on such issues, it is surely unrealistic to expect a simultaneous targeting of all dimensions with one comprehensive strategy. 

A more realistic approach to addressing campaign finance may be to take a few steps at a time. Between the three, it may be prudent to address transparency initially by squeezing out channels of cash donations and ensuring that only clean money enters the political arena. While the decision to dispense with the cap on donations may actually be a practical response, the waiver of disclosure requirements is a retrograde step. The latter becomes all the more so since maintaining the current disclosure requirements would have been politically feasible. 

Instead of the current proposal, it would have been more appropriate and practical to have a much higher cap than the (now amended) 7.5 per cent of the average net profit over the past three years and either retain the current disclosure requirement or link disclosure to the revised cap. A progressive reduction of that cap would then have become the natural phasing of campaign finance reforms. Now, anonymous corporate donations have been given a complete free pass. And future reforms have to battle insertion of the caps on both donations and disclosure requirements.  

The credibility of government's commitment to campaign finance reforms will be measured by complementary measures to strengthen the rigour of audits and tax filings of political parties as well as enforce-ability of their violations. 

In any case, as already mentioned, I feel that the last word on this enactment may yet come from the Supreme Court, and it is here that some of the aforementioned suggestions can be considered.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Status note on the Rupee


Is the Rupee over-valued? I have tried to capture the relative real effective exchange rate (REER) trends of Indian Rupee against those of its emerging market peers.

The graphic (data from Breugel) presents the REER of 14 major emerging economies, including two of India's neighbours, since 2007. As on September 2008, with the base year of 2007, the Indian currency was the weakest in the sample. Fast forward to March 2016, and the rupee has appreciated more than all but four currencies, rising steadily by 16% since January 2007. It was largely stable during the peak of the crisis, but declined in mid-2013 as the taper tantrum played out. However, since the September 2013 trough, the rupee has steadily appreciated by more than a fifth, making its real appreciation significant.
Apart from China, among its peers, only Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Pakistan have had greater currency appreciation since 2007. Since the taper tantrum trough, only Bangladesh and Pakistan currencies have appreciated more. The Bangladeshi Taka has appreciated by nearly 54% and Vietnamese Dong by nearly 44% since January 2007. Interestingly, but for the 2009-10 blip, Bangladesh and Vietnam have been growing steadily upwards of 5-6% for some time now. Pakistan, growing at 3-4%, clearly has a currency over-valuation problem. 

Since September 2013, India's central bank has waged a very firm battle against inflation and has been largely successful in anchoring inflationary expectations. In the process, it has not only managed to provide macroeconomic stability but also enhanced the perception among investors. The problems elsewhere coupled with the country's relatively strong economic growth has only added to the positive animal spirits. In this "country world of the blind", the Rupee has naturally held strong against its counterparts in East Asia and elsewhere.

In other words, this strength of Rupee is a natural consequence of good macroeconomic policies, relatively high growth, boosted by the Central Bank's credibility, and amplified by economic weakness elsewhere. The RBI could not have engineered such persistent currency strength through open market operations in such choppy times. But its corollary has been erosion in trade competitiveness relative to its competitors, several of whom have benefited from significant depreciation.

It also underscores the point that a simultaneous pursuit of macroeconomic stability, high growth and depreciating currency may not have been possible in such times. In fact, may not be possible during most times in a closely inter-connected global economy.

China debt fact of the day

China debt fact of the day

From a Bloomberg article on China's fascination with high speed rail, whose network has grown to nearly 12000 miles in just under a decade,
In May, state-owned China Railway Corporation, the operator of China's rail network, reported that its debt had grown 10.4 percent in the past year and now exceeded $600 billion; in 2014, roughly two-thirds of that debt was related to high-speed rail construction. That’s more than the total public debt of Greece. The company runs only one profitable line -- the massively traveled Beijing-Shanghai corridor.
That is a staggering number. The debt of just China Railway Corporation is 30% of India's GDP! 

Principle of wealth building 1 of 5

The first principle of wealth building is there are only three paths to choose from in this journey... 
  1. Paper assets (stocks, bonds, etc.)
  2. Investment real estate (not your home) 
  3. Owning your own business 
Your wealth plan should include at least two of the three paths and occasionally will include all three (depending on personal circumstances). This increases safety and certainty in the outcome. 
Surprisingly, paper assets are rarely a wealth building vehicle despite the avalanche of media propaganda leading you to believe otherwise. They are typically a parking place for preserving and growing the purchasing power of wealth earned elsewhere. 
The reason this is true is because of strict mathematical limitations to paper asset growth. It is the only asset class out of the three that is governed by these limitations. 
(Side note: Did you notice the irony that paper assets are not really a wealth building vehicle when that is the only thing included in a traditional adviser's financial plan? That may not make sense until you realize that financial advisers are in the business of helping you manage the wealth you already created. They are not in the business of helping you build wealth in the first place.) 
In other words, there are really two steps to the wealth process (but most people only think in terms of one). The first step is to create wealth and the second step is preserve and grow that wealth through investing. 
So how do most people create wealth in the first place? 
Statistically, the answer is real estate and owning your own business. Why this is true will be explained in wealth plan principles 3 and 4 over the next few weeks. These reasons are an important part of your plan. 
A small proportion of the population can save their way to wealth by applying frugality and deferring earned income (wealth earned elsewhere) to wealth vehicles 1 & 2 (real estate and paper assets). 
However, saving your way to wealth is less common because it ignores wealth plan principles 3 & 4 and because it requires discipline, persistence and starting early enough in life to allow compound growth to work its magic. Yes, it is a workable strategy, but not many people fit this profile. 
Your homework from this lesson is to start thinking about which of the three paths to wealth you would like to include in your wealth plan. 
In your next lesson I will explain how to match the various paths to wealth with your unique life situation to begin formulating your personalised wealth plan. This is critically important to actually reaching your goal. 
There are many ways to achieve wealth, but only one path that will uniquely fit you. I will explain how that works in your next lesson. 
Finally, if you're liking this series, consider taking it to the next level with my course on designing your wealth plan. In Module 2 - Lesson 4 of that course I show you exactly how mathematical limitations to asset growth get integrated into your wealth plan design, and I provide the necessary resources showing you realistic rates of growth for each of the assets in your plan. Also, in Module 4 of the course, I explain the principles underlying each of the 3 asset classes so that you know how to properly utilize each asset class in your wealth plan.  
Okay, see you in a few days with your next lesson from this course... which will be wealth plan principle #2 of 5. 
See you then...


Ritesh.Sheth CWM®
CHARTERED WEALTH MANAGER

              Helping you invest better...  






Allaudin Bldg Shop No 1,Manchubhai Road,Malad East,Mumbai - 400097.Shop No.9,Param Ratan Bldg,Jakaria Road,Malad West,Mumbai - 400064.Tel:28891775/28816101/28828756/28823279. CELL:9930444099  www.tejasconsultancy.co.in | E-mail Us: ritesh@tejasconsultancy.co.inGo Green...Save a tree. Don't print this e-mail unless it's really necessary
Disclaimer:This blog is addressed to and intended for the investors of Ritesh Sheth & Tejas Consultancy only. You are advised to contact Ritesh Sheth & Tejas Consultancy to clarify any issue that you may have with regards to any information contained in this emailer. The views are personal. Ritesh Sheth & Family or Tejas Consultancy does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information in this blog and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of such information. Investopedia definitions are used for educational purpose. Ritesh Sheth & Family or Tejas Consultancy does not have any liability to any person on account of the use of information provided herein and the said information is provided on a best effort basis only for educating investor. In case of investments in any of our schemes, please read the offer documents carefully before investing. 

Thursday, March 3, 2016

"What's next?"

Dear Investor,

The budget was wholly aimed at improving the infrastructure of the country, especially in road sector. With monsoon not being adequate for last two consecutive years, the rural economy is under pressure, and hence, the budget had many provisions addressing the rural segment of the economy.

Meanwhile, there was also driving force on entrepreneurship and rationalisation of tax structure for start-ups and new setups in the manufacturing sector.

Valuations getting better across the board,focus on themes like 7th pay commission, Focused Government reforms, Digital India this all beneficiaries could benefit your portfolio significantly.

Macroeconomic stability is fundamental to ensuring that there is further scope for monetary policy easing. Govt's Assurance of abiding by its fiscal deficit target at 3.5% of GDP in FY 16-17 has been able to provide room for easing of key policy rates by RBI.

As global volatility stabilizes, expect FII flows to resume in India. Time in the market more important than timing the market – volatility in markets to remain elevated.

Inspiring quotes: 

"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" - Sir John TempletonFollow market trends and history. Don't speculate that this particular time will be any different. For example, a major key to investing in a particular stock or bond fund is its performance over five years. Nothing shorter.

"Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away." - Jim CramerThere are no sure bets in the world of investing; there is risk in everything. Be prepared for the ups and downs. 

"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren BuffettBe prepared to invest in a down market and to "get out" in a soaring market.

So, The world of investing can be cold and hard. But if you do thorough research and keep your head on straight, your chances of long-term success are good. 


Recommend regular and disciplined investment in equities – Investors should look at a mix of large and midcap funds for 3-5 years horizon on systematic investment basis.



Please feel free to call us for more detailed discussion.


-- 

Regards,
Ritesh.Sheth CWM®
CHARTERED WEALTH MANAGER

              Helping you invest better...  

Allaudin Bldg Shop No 1,Manchubhai Road,Malad East,Mumbai - 400097.
Shop No.9,Param Ratan Bldg,Jakaria Road,Malad West,Mumbai - 400064.
Tel:28891775/28816101/28828756/28823279. CELL:9930444099  
www.tejasconsultancy.co.in | E-mail Us: ritesh@tejasconsultancy.co.in
Go Green...Save a tree. Don't print this e-mail unless it's really necessary
Disclaimer:
This emailer or Social Media feeds is addressed to and intended for the investors of Ritesh Sheth & Tejas Consultancy only and is not spam. You are advised to contact Ritesh Sheth & Tejas Consultancy to clarify any issue that you may have with regards to any information contained in this emailer.The views are personal. Ritesh Sheth & Family or Tejas Consultancy does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information in this emailer and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of such information. Ritesh Sheth & Family or Tejas Consultancy does not have any liability to any person on account of the use of information provided herein and the said information is provided on a best effort basis. In case of investments in any of our schemes, please read the offer documents carefully before investing.
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Wednesday, February 10, 2016

MY OUTLOOK ON CURRENT INDIAN MARKETS

Happy to notice a flicker on the needle as I sight a slight rebound in the earnings profile of companies that have declared results so far. However this delayed evidence seem to be of little consequence to a market that may have waited enough and is now looking at global cues. Only time will tell whether the known unknowns of Chinese Yuan devaluation & dollar strengthening, the path of Fed rate hikes, rebound in global growth etc., will stabilise enough to let us refocus on the green shoots in India. 

Domestically I  am optimistic of growth becoming better, but not enough to let fiscal slippages be in control. And this may cause further debt issuance by RBI keeping floor on yields not withstanding any rate cuts that may or may not happen. The near lack of sympathetic movement despite 125 bps rate cut by RBI in 2015 is a case in point. 

In this light, I fear that a fiscal slippage if evident post budget, coupled with signs of stress on the currency front due to any risk-off events in the near term, may put to rest our recent alignment with duration. An outside chance is developing where yields may indeed cross 8.00% and force all of us to relook at accrual strategies, abandoning duration despite the multi-year wait of advisors hoping it would pay off. I pray that global markets remain calm in 2016 and allow the scope for local bond yields to drift lower as is the current possibility. 

In the same breath were there to be global turmoil or market weakening from current levels, local markets may go down in sympathy to even lower levels of 6500 +/- 200 points if it doesn’t stop at 7000 levels which is a very good medium term support. I am looking to trim mid-cap exposure based on a likelihood of the above turmoil. 

I strongly recommend to add good amount of money to your Indian equity diversified mutual funds now looking at 2 to 3 years time horizon. focused on large cap will pay off good.


Please feel free to call us for more detailed discussion.

-- 
Regards,
 
Ritesh.Sheth CWM®
CHARTERED WEALTH MANAGER

              Helping you invest better...  

Allaudin Bldg Shop No 1,Manchubhai Road,Malad East,Mumbai - 400097.
Shop No.9,Param Ratan Bldg,Jakaria Road,Malad West,Mumbai - 400064.
Tel:28891775/28816101/28828756/28823279. CELL:9930444099  
www.tejasconsultancy.co.in | E-mail Us: ritesh@tejasconsultancy.co.in
Go Green...Save a tree. Don't print this e-mail unless it's really necessary
Disclaimer:
This emailer is addressed to and intended for the investors of Ritesh Sheth & Tejas Consultancy only and is not spam. You are advised to contact Ritesh Sheth & Tejas Consultancy to clarify any issue that you may have with regards to any information contained in this emailer.The views are personal. Ritesh Sheth & Family or Tejas Consultancy does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information in this emailer and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of such information. Ritesh Sheth & Family or Tejas Consultancy does not have any liability to any person on account of the use of information provided herein and the said information is provided on a best effort basis. In case of investments in any of our schemes, please read the offer documents carefully before investing.
To unsubscribe from future mailer Please e-mail: 
info@tejasconsultancy..co.in